Calculate Real EV

Taigi zaidziant visai neretai buna tokios situacijos kai buni outflopintas, arba isriverina randoma, o iki tol jau bunat sukishe begale chipsu. Sitoj vietoj Holdem Manageris paiso butent tiek Ev kiek turejai paskutine akimirka. Pora pavyzdziu:

Pvz.: 1

Poker Stars $6.68+$0.32 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t125/t250 Blinds + t30 - 7 players - View hand 1588526

DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: t1765 M = 3.02

UTG+1: t3620 M = 6.19

MP: t1524 M = 2.61

CO: t2445 M = 4.18

Hero (BTN): t3075 M = 5.26

SB: t1973 M = 3.37

BB: t598 M = 1.02

Pre Flop: (t585) Hero is BTN with K :club: 8 :club:

4 folds, Hero raises to t517, 1 fold, BB calls t267

Flop: (t1369) 8 :diamond: 2 :spade: 9 :diamond: (2 players)

BB bets t51 all in, Hero calls t51

Turn: (t1471) 2 :club: (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t1471) 5 :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t1471

Hero shows K :club: 8 :club: (two pair, Eights and Deuces)

BB shows 8 :spade: 9 :heart: (two pair, Nines and Eights)

BB wins t1471

Pvz.: 2

Poker Stars $6.68+$0.32 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 10 players - View hand 1588525

DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP2: t1380 34.50 BBs

MP3: t1485 37.12 BBs

CO: t1350 33.75 BBs

BTN: t1455 36.38 BBs

SB: t1470 36.75 BBs

BB: t1500 37.50 BBs

UTG: t1500 37.50 BBs

UTG+1: t1470 36.75 BBs

UTG+2: t1500 37.50 BBs

Hero (MP1): t1890 47.25 BBs

Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is MP1 with K :heart: A :diamond:

3 folds, Hero raises to t114, 4 folds, SB calls t94, 1 fold

Flop: (t268) 2 :club: 5 :diamond: A :heart: (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets t187, SB calls t187

Turn: (t642) T :spade: (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets t449, SB calls t449

River: (t1540) Q :diamond: (2 players)

SB bets t540, Hero raises to t1080, SB calls t180 all in

Final Pot: t2980

SB shows Q :heart: T :club: (two pair, Queens and Tens)

Hero shows K :heart: A :diamond: (a pair of Aces)

SB wins t2980

Taigi, pvz1 aiskiai matosi, kad praktiskai visas stekas buvo sukishtas Hero turint 70%, taciau pabaigoj gaunas kad Hm nubraizo jog sumetei turedamas 12%. Taigi norint tiksliai suskaiciuot chipsEv:

pot:[1369] board:[] dead:[]
stevy112 0.291235668432708 398.701630084378
kampiuceris 0.708764331567292 970.298369915623

pot:[102] board:[8d2s9d] dead:[]
stevy112 0.875757575757576 89.3272727272727
kampiuceris 0.124242424242424 12.6727272727273

taigi realus chipsEv sitoj vietoj yra:

stevy112 ~488 chips

kampiuceris ~983 chips

Antram pavyzdyje:

pot:[268] board:[] dead:[]
kampiuceris 0.644867675366056 172.824536998103
Circus23 0.355132324633944 95.1754630018969

pot:[374] board:[2c5dAh] dead:[]
kampiuceris 0.964646464646465 360.777777777778
Circus23 0.0353535353535354 13.2222222222222

pot:[898] board:[2c5dAhTs] dead:[]
kampiuceris 0.886363636363636 795.954545454546
Circus23 0.113636363636364 102.045454545455

pot:[1440] board:[2c5dAhTsQd] dead:[]
kampiuceris 0 0
Circus23 1 1440

kampiuceris ~1326 chips

Circus23 ~1654 chips

Cia HM isvis nubraizo 0%, nors akivaizdziai taip nera.

Taigi matematikoj viskas grazu ir aisku, taciau dabar pagrindinis klausimas man iskilo ziurint i antra pvz. Viskas gerai kai buna showdownas, galima apskaiciuot. Taciau ar galima butu toki modeli taikyt visiem handam be isimties, nes as kazkaip pagalvojau, jog tie handai kur oponentas ant riverio foldina, cia nepapuls (nes nebus showdowno), nors istiesu pvz jei oponentas koki flushdraw ten drawino ir missino, visvien dalis chipsu turetu jam priklausyt. Ar galima sita ignoruot atsveriant tuo, kad lygiai taip pat tu gali drawinti ir paskui foldinti (tokie handai juk irgi neisiskaiciuos). Taciau situo atveju labai daug kas priklauso nuo zaidejo stiliaus. Tarkim vieni linke pushint flushdraw iskart ant flopo, kiti drawina drawina ir veliau foldina arba bando isblefuot. Ka manot: Ar teisingas toks skaiciavimas visiem handam?

Matau kazkaip nenoriai reiskiat savo nuomone. Stai dar vienas pvz kuris kelia nesutarima mano mintyse:

Pvz.: 3

Poker Stars $6.68+$0.32 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t60/t120 Blinds + t15 - 9 players - View hand 1590412

DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG+2: t1185 M = 3.76

MP1: t2420 M = 7.68

MP2: t1175 M = 3.73

CO: t1785 M = 5.67

Hero (BTN): t230 M = 0.73

SB: t2600 M = 8.25

BB: t1170 M = 3.71

UTG: t1695 M = 5.38

UTG+1: t2740 M = 8.70

Pre Flop: (t315) Hero is BTN with 9 :spade: A :club:

6 folds, Hero raises to t215 all in, SB calls t155, BB calls t95

Flop: (t780) J :club: J :spade: 5 :diamond: (3 players - 1 is all in)

SB checks, BB bets t120, SB folds

Turn: (t780) T :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t780) K :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t780

Hero shows 9 :spade: A :club: (a pair of Jacks)

BB shows K :diamond: J :diamond: (a full house, Jacks full of Kings)

BB wins t780

pot:[780] board:[] dead:[]
Robot Ocel 0.457718372438539 357.02033050206
kampiuceris 0.542281627561461 422.97966949794

Taciau, cia labai slidus momentas yra tas, jog atsivertus visai kitokiam flopui, galbut visai kitaip ir situacija butu issidevelopinus. Sakykim BB sitoj vietoj kazkokiu budu AK laike ir po flopo tiesiog simply issimete, ir jei taip butu, mano tikrasis chipsEV butu daug mazesnis. Ar velgi cia priimt, kad lygiai tokios pat situacijos gali but apsikeitus vietom?